4% Rule & Safe Withdrawal Calculator
In short: The 4% rule says you can withdraw 4% of your starting portfolio in year one, then adjust that dollar amount for inflation each year, and historically have a high chance of the money lasting about 30 years. A $1,000,000 portfolio supports roughly $40,000 in first-year spending. It is a planning guideline, not a guarantee.
Source: IRS Notice 2025-67 (IR-2025-111). Data as of 2026 tax year.
These are estimates for general information, not financial advice. Verify figures with the IRS and a qualified professional before acting.
How it works
Enter your portfolio value, a withdrawal rate and an expected return to see your first-year income and a simple year-by-year drawdown that adjusts spending for inflation. The result updates as you type and nothing leaves your device — every figure is computed in your browser.
2026 IRS limits used here
Source: IRS Notice 2025-67 (IR-2025-111). Announced November 2025; effective for the 2026 tax year. Data as of the 2026 tax year.
| 2026 limit | Amount |
|---|---|
| 401(k)/403(b)/457/TSP elective deferral | $24,500 |
| 401(k) catch-up (age 50+) | $8,000 (total $32,500) |
| 401(k) catch-up (ages 60–63) | $11,250 (total $35,750) |
| Combined employee + employer (415(c)) | $72,000 |
| IRA contribution (Roth or Traditional) | $7,500 |
| IRA catch-up (age 50+) | $1,100 (total $8,600) |
| Roth IRA phase-out — single | $153,000–$168,000 |
| Roth IRA phase-out — married filing jointly | $242,000–$252,000 |
Frequently asked questions
Where does the 4% rule come from?
It comes from the 1990s “Trinity Study” and William Bengen's research, which tested historical US market returns and found a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate survived 30-year retirements in nearly all historical periods.
Is 4% still safe in 2026?
It remains a reasonable starting point, but it is a rule of thumb, not a promise. Long retirements, high valuations or a poor early sequence of returns can argue for a more cautious 3–3.5% rate or a flexible spending plan.
What is sequence-of-returns risk?
It is the danger that poor market returns early in retirement, combined with withdrawals, permanently shrink your portfolio. The same average return with losses front-loaded is far more damaging than with losses later, which is why early retirees often hold extra cash or bonds.
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Last updated: 2026-06-14